Donald Trump has been rolling out his metrics-o-meter for the past week, and he’s using it to assess his campaign’s effectiveness.
In this week’s edition of the Metric-O, Trump’s team put together a chart that shows his campaign has a very high probability of winning the popular vote in 2020, based on how he’s measured each metric.
He also includes the chance of winning, or losing, the Electoral College.
The numbers, he wrote, are:1.
The probability of a candidate winning the Electoral college in 2020 is 2.7%, or 1.4 million votes.2.
The chance of a state winning the electoral college in 2021 is 3.3%, or 832,000 votes.3.
The chances of winning every congressional district in 2020 are 0.4%, or 4,500,000 ballots.4.
The likelihood of winning all states in 2021 are 0%.5.
The probabilities of winning at least 50% of the popular votes in 2020 and 2021 are 2%, or 10,000,000 voters.6.
The odds of winning both the electoral and popular votes are 5%, or 17,000.7.
The most likely winner in 2020 in a two-party system is Gary Johnson, with 1.3% of total popular votes.8.
The more likely candidate to win in 2020 if he or she is running in a one-party state is Donald Trump, with 0.7% of popular votes to Johnson’s 2.5%.9.
The highest chance to win the popular and electoral votes in a three-way race is 1.8%, with 1,300,000 to Johnson 2.2%.10.
The lowest chance to get more than 50% in 2020 with less than 1% of all popular votes is 0.1%, with only 0.02% to Johnson 1%.11.
The least likely candidate in 2020 to win with less-than-1% of votes is Jill Stein, with about 0.08% of voters to Johnson and 1.9% to Trump.12.
The biggest risk to a candidate running in both the Electoral and popular-vote states is Hillary Clinton, with a 1.2% chance of being elected president in 2020.13.
The worst-case scenario for a candidate in either of those states is to lose both states to Donald Trump and win the Electoral vote.
The risk to winning both states in 2020 would be a 9.2-point drop in the popular-voter vote, and the risk to losing one of them would be 7.5-point.
Trump’s data on 2020 turnout is far worse, and there are far fewer votes in either state.
It’s a big reason he can’t claim a landslide victory.
He needs to be able to count on enough popular votes for a narrow victory in 2020 that will allow him to secure the presidency in the second or third week of the election.14.
He could also lose the Electoral votes in the other two states, but the margin would still be close enough to give him the presidency.
His chances in these states would be 1.1% and 0.8% respectively.15.
In 2020, if a candidate who lost in the Electoral is reelected, the probability of losing the popular or electoral vote drops to about 0%.
This is the same as if Trump were to win all of the states.
If he wins in all of them, the number drops to 0.3%.16.
Trump could still be the only candidate in the field who could win the electoral vote in all states, or even win the presidency outright.
But he’d have to win enough states to win by a larger margin than he would if the popular support was the same across the country.